Q. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted a global sea level rise of about one metre by AD 2100. What would be its impact in India and the other countries in the Indian Ocean region?

Model Answer: 

The IPCC AR6 report warns of a ~1m sea-level rise (SLR) by 2100, posing severe socio-economic, geopolitical, and ecological threats to India and the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

Impact of Sea-Level Rise on India

India’s 7,516 km coastline faces multidimensional vulnerabilities from an advancing ocean:

• Coastal Submergence: Inundation of mega-cities, commercial hubs, and critical maritime infrastructure (Mumbai, Chennai ports).
• Ecological Devastation: Drowning of vital carbon sinks, mangroves, and fragile coral ecosystems (Sundarbans, Gulf of Mannar).
• Agricultural Ruin: Saltwater intrusion destroying fertile coastal deltas and contaminating freshwater aquifers (Krishna-Godavari basin).
• Climate Refugees: Mass displacement and permanent loss of traditional fishing and farming livelihoods (Munroe Island, Kerala).
• Disaster Amplification: Heightened vulnerability to severe storm surges, rapid coastal erosion, and cyclonic destruction (Cyclone Amphan).

Impact on Other Indian Ocean Region (IOR) Countries

The broader IOR faces both existential risks and systemic geopolitical shifts:

• Existential Threat to SIDS: Complete inundation of low-lying Small Island Developing States, threatening national survival (Maldives, Seychelles).
• Economic Collapse: Destruction of tourism-dependent economies and vital marine ecosystems supporting the Blue Economy (Mauritius).
• Geopolitical Instability: Alteration of Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) and conflicts arising from cross-border mass migration (Bangladesh).
• Administrative Disruption: Uninhabitable coastal zones forcing the multi-billion-dollar relocation of national capitals (Jakarta, Indonesia).
• Severe Water Insecurity: Salinization of fragile freshwater lenses, triggering acute, irreversible drinking water crises (Comoros).

Conclusion: Combating SLR requires strict enforcement of coastal norms (CRZ 2019), nature-based solutions, active regional cooperation (IORA), and operationalizing global “Loss and Damage” climate funds.