Q. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted a global sea level rise of about one metre by AD 2100. What would be its impact in India and the other countries in the Indian Ocean region?

Model Answer: 

Sea Level Rise: Impact on India and Indian Ocean Region

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts a global sea level rise of approximately one metre by 2100, primarily due to thermal expansion of oceans and melting glaciers and ice sheets. This rise poses significant challenges for coastal regions worldwide, particularly in the Indian Ocean area.

Impacts on India:

1. Coastal Vulnerability:
• Major cities like Mumbai, Chennai, and Kolkata face increased flooding risks.
• Coastal erosion threatens infrastructure, settlements, and historical sites.
• Lakshadweep and Andaman & Nicobar Islands at risk of submergence.

2. Agriculture and Food Security:
• Saltwater intrusion may reduce arable land in coastal areas.
• Impacts on rice production in deltas of Ganges, Cauvery, and Krishna rivers.
• Threat to coastal aquaculture, affecting livelihoods and food supply.

3. Biodiversity and Ecosystems:
• Threat to mangrove forests, including the Sundarbans.
• Disruption of marine ecosystems and fisheries.
• Coral reef degradation affecting marine biodiversity.

4. Socio-economic Consequences:
• Potential displacement of millions in coastal communities.
• Economic losses in tourism, ports, and coastal industries.
• Increased vulnerability of coastal power plants and refineries.

Impacts on Other Indian Ocean Countries:

• Existential threat to low-lying island nations and coastal areas.
• Severe flooding and land loss in densely populated deltas.
• Mass migration and increased pressure on urban areas.
• Significant impacts on tourism-based economies.
• Threats to historical coastal sites and urban infrastructure.
• Degradation of coral reefs and marine ecosystems.
• Risks to coastal agriculture and freshwater resources.
• Challenges to fisheries and maritime industries.
• Increased vulnerability of coastal cities to storm surges and cyclones.

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies:

1. Coastal Protection:
• Construction of sea walls, levees, and flood barriers.
• Restoration and conservation of mangroves and wetlands.
• Beach nourishment and dune reinforcement.

2. Urban Planning:
• Relocation of vulnerable populations and infrastructure.
• Climate-resilient urban development in coastal areas.
• Improved drainage systems and flood-resistant architecture.

3. Early Warning Systems:
• Improved forecasting and monitoring of sea level rise.
• Enhanced disaster preparedness and response mechanisms.
• Community-based early warning networks.

4. Sustainable Coastal Management:
• Integrated coastal zone management policies.
• Ecosystem-based adaptation approaches.
• Stricter regulations on coastal development.

5. Regional Cooperation:
• Shared research and technology transfer.
• Collaborative climate change adaptation initiatives.
• Joint efforts in marine conservation and sustainable fisheries.

Conclusion:
The predicted sea level rise presents a shared challenge for India and the Indian Ocean region, requiring urgent, collaborative action to protect vulnerable coastal areas and communities.