Q. The groundwater potential of the gangetic valley is on a serious decline. How may it affect the food security of India?

Model Answer:

The declining groundwater potential in the Gangetic valley and its effects on India’s food security:

1. Groundwater Depletion in the Gangetic Valley:

• Rapid decline: Groundwater levels are dropping by 4-8 cm annually in many areas.
• Over-extraction: The number of tubewells has increased from about 4,000 in 1951 to over 12 million by 2013.
• Inefficient irrigation: Flood irrigation, common in paddy cultivation, leads to significant water wastage.
• Climate change impact: Summer monsoon rainfall has decreased by about 10% since the 1950s, affecting natural recharge.

2. Effects on India’s Food Security:

• Reduced agricultural productivity:
– The Indo-Gangetic basin contributes 50% of India’s agricultural output, including 50% of rice and 85% of wheat.
– A 2018 Nature study projected a potential 68% reduction in wheat and rice production in some areas by 2025.

• Shifting cropping patterns:
– Farmers are moving from water-intensive crops like paddy to alternatives such as maize and pulses.
– This shift disrupts established food production systems and may lead to staple grain shortages.

• Economic implications:
– Rising irrigation costs due to deeper groundwater levels are likely to increase food prices.
– 48% of agricultural households in Uttar Pradesh are already in debt, according to the National Sample Survey.

• Nutritional concerns:
– Changes in crop patterns may alter the nutritional profile of available foods.
– This could exacerbate existing nutritional deficiencies, particularly in rural areas.

• Threat to food self-sufficiency:
– Declining productivity in the Gangetic valley threatens India’s food self-sufficiency.
– Increased reliance on food imports may expose India to global market volatilities.

• Long-term challenges:
– The 2019 IPCC report suggests climate change could reduce agricultural productivity in the region by 10-40% by 2100.
– This long-term decline poses a significant threat to India’s future food security.

• Socio-economic impacts:
– Declining agricultural productivity threatens rural livelihoods.
– Potential increase in rural-urban migration, straining urban food systems.

Addressing these challenges requires implementing sustainable water management, efficient irrigation techniques, crop diversification, and climate-resilient agriculture to safeguard India’s food security and the livelihoods dependent on the Gangetic valley.